Following its introduction
in Vinge's stories, particularly Marooned in Realtime and A Fire
Upon the Deep, the singularity has also become a common plot element
in science fiction in modern civilization. Ray Kurzweil defines
the singularity as a period of extremely rapid technological progress.
Kurzweil argues such an event is implied by a long-term pattern
of accelerating change that generalizes Moore's Law to technologies
predating the integrated circuit and which he argues will continue
to other technologies not yet invented.
As Kurzweil aptly put it: “The Singularity is technological
change so rapid and so profound that it represents a rupture in
the fabric of human history. Some would say that we cannot comprehend
the Singularity, at least with our current level of understanding,
and that it is impossible, therefore, to look past its “event
horizon” and make sense of what lies beyond”.
This hypothesis is strongly supported by Robin Hanson who has consistently
argued that multiple "singularities" have occurred throughout
history, dramatically affecting the growth rate of the economy.
For example, the agricultural and industrial revolutions of the
past, the technological singularity would increase economic growth
between 60 and 250 times. He predicted that an innovation that would
allow for replacement of virtually all human labour could trigger
this singularity.
Hawking in support of the singularity hypothesis has argued that:
“Some people say that computers can never show true intelligence
whatever that may be. But it seems to me that if very complicated
chemical molecules can operate in humans to make them intelligent
then equally complicated electronic circuits can also make computers
act in an intelligent way. And if they are intelligent they can
presumably design computers that have even greater complexity and
intelligence”
Therefore, the proponents of the Singularity hypothesis believe
that, a technological singularity would lead to a rapid development
of a Kardashev Type I civilization where a Kardashev Type I civilization
has achieved mastery of the resources of its home planet, Type II
of its planetary system, and Type III of its galaxy. Given the fact
that humans on Earth will reach 0.7 on the Kardashev scale by 2040,
a technological singularity between now and then would push us rapidly
over that limit.
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