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EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES TODAY  

Prof. Oliver E. Osuagwu,
D.Sc(AI), FNCS, FBCS, MIEEE
Tel:
0803-710-1792 drosuagwu@yahoo.com

Singularity Conundrum (1)

There is currently a hot debate as whether or not technology will develop machines that can become more intelligent than their creators and then lord it over their creators. The argument is worrisome in the sense that given the super-intelligence of these new technologies, man is likely to become subservient to AI-machines and therefore, take directives from machines.

This is called the Singularity Conundrum. This write-up therefore, will explore the efficacy of this projection and conclude whether it will or will not happen in our time.

What is technological singularity hypothesis? The technological singularity is a theoretical future point of unprecedented technological progress, caused in part by the ability of machines to improve themselves using artificial intelligence.

It refers to the “intelligence explosion” I.G. Good wrote, suggesting that if machines could even slightly surpass human intellect, they could improve their own designs in ways unforeseen by their designers, and thus recursively augment themselves into far greater intelligences.

The first such improvements might be small, but as the machine became more intelligent it would become better at becoming more intelligent, which could lead to an exponential and quite sudden growth in intelligence.

It was Vernor Vinge that coined the word “Singularity” which he illustrated as an analogy between the breakdown of modern physics near a gravitational singularity and the drastic change in society which he argues would occur following an intelligence explosion.

 

In the 1980s, Vinge popularized the singularity in lectures, essays, and science fiction.

In recent times, prominent technologists such as Bill Joy, founder of Sun Microsystems, voiced concern over the potential dangers of Vinge's singularity.

Following its introduction in Vinge's stories, particularly Marooned in Realtime and A Fire Upon the Deep, the singularity has also become a common plot element in science fiction in modern civilization. Ray Kurzweil defines the singularity as a period of extremely rapid technological progress.

Kurzweil argues such an event is implied by a long-term pattern of accelerating change that generalizes Moore's Law to technologies predating the integrated circuit and which he argues will continue to other technologies not yet invented.

As Kurzweil aptly put it: “The Singularity is technological change so rapid and so profound that it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. Some would say that we cannot comprehend the Singularity, at least with our current level of understanding, and that it is impossible, therefore, to look past its “event horizon” and make sense of what lies beyond”.

This hypothesis is strongly supported by Robin Hanson who has consistently argued that multiple "singularities" have occurred throughout history, dramatically affecting the growth rate of the economy. For example, the agricultural and industrial revolutions of the past, the technological singularity would increase economic growth between 60 and 250 times. He predicted that an innovation that would allow for replacement of virtually all human labour could trigger this singularity.

Hawking in support of the singularity hypothesis has argued that: “Some people say that computers can never show true intelligence whatever that may be. But it seems to me that if very complicated chemical molecules can operate in humans to make them intelligent then equally complicated electronic circuits can also make computers act in an intelligent way. And if they are intelligent they can presumably design computers that have even greater complexity and intelligence”

Therefore, the proponents of the Singularity hypothesis believe that, a technological singularity would lead to a rapid development of a Kardashev Type I civilization where a Kardashev Type I civilization has achieved mastery of the resources of its home planet, Type II of its planetary system, and Type III of its galaxy. Given the fact that humans on Earth will reach 0.7 on the Kardashev scale by 2040, a technological singularity between now and then would push us rapidly over that limit.

 
 
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