Like
the lava of an active volcano, the on-going global
economic violence, which erupted in the second
half of last year in the United States of America,
the headquarters of capitalism and market economy,
has become a monumental catastrophe sweeping away
a whopping 51 million jobs world-wide according
to the CNN survey.
There seems to be unanimity of opinion that the
crises are unprecedented; no replica of it in
history -not even the Great Depression of the
1930s- as there was no globalization then. This
will probably be the first time in living memory
when the world will be contending with the twin
problems of untold financial famine vis-à-vis
economic recession of this magnitude simultaneously.
Further more, no one knows how messy it will get
before it starts getting better: are we actually
at the beginning of the end, as Winston Churchill,
one time British Prime Minister once asked - or
the end of the beginning?
Suffice to say that this is made in America crisis
even though the whole world is catching cold.
It will be recalled that the chain of events arising
from the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the re-capitalization
of AIG, CDOs, the merger between Citi and the
Bank of America, the Madoff fraud juxtaposed with
the sub prime mortgage crisis served as the immediate
cause.
But by benefit of hindsight, the remote causes
of this systemic failure could partly be linked
to the rapacious greed of the business elite (the
CEOs) and their irrational exuberances. Sadly
enough, the US has not found the right formula
with which to solve the current complex economic
quadratic equation. I will explain.
When the Asian Tigers bubble went burst in the
1990s, the three solutions prescribed by the 'doctors'
of capitalism from the US to the then Japanese
and Korean leadership were: one, do not throw
good money against bad money i.e. allow all the
sick companies and banks to die a natural death.
Two, raise the lending interest rate. And three,
increase consumption.
That was then. Now that the chicken has come home
to roost and the 'doctor' is sneezing contagiously,
it is amazing that the 'doctor' is administering
the exact opposite of what it once prescribed:
throwing tax payer money (good money) to save
(bad money) the likes of AIG, GM, and Chrysler
motors among others.
Two, reduce the lending rate to below one percent.
And three, reduce consumption. Even then the world
leaders that gathered in Davos failed to come
up with concrete actionable steps that can take
us out of the woods.
This is a season of job losses; it poured on week4
of 2009: Caterpillar Company uprooted 20,000 of
their staff in one day; the Japanese foremost
computer maker, NEC shifted 20,000 staff into
the labour market, while 19000 jobs were fumigated
to death by Pfizer, ING bank sent home 2,500;
Microsoft deleted 5000 jobs in one day; Phillips
'electrocuted' about 10,000 jobs; Intel, the Chips
maker, interred 7000 jobs, while 5000 jobs were
crushed by Honda car, UK. Boeing dropped 10,000
staffs; and Kodak offloaded 4,500 staff.
About 20 million jobs in China and another 10
million in India are now history. The list is
endless. Almost all the FORTUNE 500 companies
are bleeding. The crisis had consumed one European
leader while the charismatic French President,
Nicolas Sarkozy is sweating because of the on-going
workers strike in his country.
The French's fear that bread may soon disappear
from the table in France if a quick solution is
not found to stop the rain of job loss is real.
Recall it was shortage of bread that led to the
French revolts of 1830, 1884 and 1871. In Britain
the new slogan as people demonstrated on the streets
is: 'British jobs for the British people'.
Already, Americans are groaning. Just a few days
ago, an American, Ervin Lupo killed his entire
nuclear family in five minutes when he shot dead
his three girls and two boys together with his
wife before he turned the revolver on himself.
Reason: Lupo and his wife were among the thousands
of Americans that were badly beaten by the Week4
2009 rain of job losses.
In his suicide note, Lupo called his family situation
as tragic: 'so after a horrendous ordeal, my wife
and I feel it better to end our lives and why
leave our children in someone else's hands'. Another
Lupo must not happen in the States otherwise the
kitchen may get too hot, too early for President
Obama.
Suddenly, economists have started taking another
look at the viability and sustainability of American
brand of capitalism in the New World. Is this
the end of capitalism as a system as Karl Marx
earlier predicted? True, Marx had earlier predicted
that Capitalism in the ultimate analysis will
go into self-liquidation as a result of apparent
contradictions and lopsidedness in the distribution
of income.
Some economists are advocating for social market
economy- the Germany brand of capitalism. President
Sarkozy is calling for 'moralization of capitalism'
with emphasis on entrepreneurship, work, and corporate
governance. All said the videos of recession which
we are watching live daily does not signify the
demise of capitalism as a system. However, the
unbridle globalization which has created bigger
inequalities among nations and peoples, and therefore,
makes it possible for the Americans and Europeans
to eat themselves to obesity at the expense of
the rest of the world should be reviewed with
dispatch.
Where does all this leave Nigeria? The fact that
we have not been badly hit like the Americans,
the Europeans and the Asians in this crisis should
not be celebrated by our rulers as a sign of sound
economic heath. Rather, it epitomizes how inconsequential
Nigeria and Africa economies are. The G20 nations
control 86% of the world economy. We are not yet
connected to the global economy grid.
FORTUNE 500 companies use Nigeria as a dumping
centre and not a production base. It is tantamount
to deceit for CBN leadership to submit that the
'fundamentals of Nigeria economy are strong'-
one wonders from which Hymn book they are singing.
Ours is a'boju-boju economy' (hide and seek):
nothing is real-what you get is what you get and
not what you see or hear. The symptoms of grave
illness are very glaring on our economy. Nigeria
is economically sick and the symptoms are incontrovertible.
With 70% graduate unemployment rate, a dying real
sector and a crumbling financial sector, we do
not need a soothsayer to tell us there is fire
on the mountain, which can be more deadly than
what obtains in the US today if we wait for it
to explode before fixing it.
Going forward, for Nigeria to join the train of
globalization, it must transit from a manually-driven,
oil-based economy to a technologically-savvy,
knowledge-based economy with accent on productivity
and accountability. We must come up with new set
of values and principles that reward honest handwork,
innovation and entrepreneurship and punish rent-collectors.
We need to re-define our relationship in the context
of the emerging new globalization; a situation
where we sheepishly open our doors to all sort
of imported junks from China and India to the
detriment of local factories should be reviewed.
We are still lackadaisical and ad-hoc in our approach
to the development of ICT in Nigeria.
Outsourcing can generate thrice the amount of
dollars we make from oil annually if we remove
the economic, cultural and attitudinal barriers
that make cost of doing business in Nigeria prohibitive.
The nations that will thrive in this chaos are
the smart ones with vibrant middle class, leadership
that are frugal and pro-active. To become an outstanding
outsourcing destination, Nigeria must infuse technology
in its DNA.
|